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2026-27 NBA Season Preview: Spurs, Rockets, Pelicans, Mavericks, Grizzlies (Southwest Division)

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With the regular season set to tip off on Oct. 20, let’s take a look at where each team in the Southwest Division stands. We’ll break down what to like and be concerned about, a lineup to watch and a reasonable range for them to finish in the standings. 

Let’s dig in, shall we?

Spurs • Rockets • Pelicans • Mavericks • Grizzlies

Previous divisions: Central

WHAT TO LIKE: Victor Wembanyama, as a concept

If Wemby isn’t the best player in the league yet (he has a strong argument for it), we certainly aren’t far away from that being the case. He’s already one of the most disruptive defenders in league history, and there are still subtle nuances and technique-based things (stance and footwork, especially on switches) for him to improve on. My guy Steve Jones has consistently highlighted how cerebral Wemby is defensively, constantly barking out assignments and dictating rotations so he can destroy offenses.

Oh, and he’s already an efficient volume scorer (25.0 points on 62.6 true shooting last season) without really having a half-court go-to yet. It’s scary. 

OTHER LIKES

  • Stephon Castle is one of my favorite players in the league — I’m still slightly #peeved that he didn’t make an All-Defensive team last year — and is poised to get better. Elite defender, fun driver, audacious lob-passer, growing shooter: he quietly shot 38% (38.2% during the playoffs) on catch-and-shoot 3s last year.

  • Speaking of the guard room, it’s hard not to be excited about Dylan Harper. He’s already one of the most unique drivers we have in the league with budding playmaking chops to boot. I can’t wait to see what kind of steps he takes in Year 2.

  • I like what the Spurs have cooking at the 4. Julian Champagnie shoots the leather off the ball while sneaking in for offensive rebounds. Tobias Harris (welcome!) can still shoot and self-create in a pinch, and has at least shown a willingness to take on tough defensive assignments when asked. Keldon Johnson can obviously slide down to the 4 in smaller lineups; he’s coming off a Sixth Man of the Year campaign himself. Lots of different looks for Mitch Johnson to toss out there.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK:De’Aaron Fox’s place in the hierarchy

I believe Fox has been discussed a little too harshly. He had a rough postseason, largely because he played while clearly being well under 100%. The driving juice wasn’t there, and the jumper largely left him. Throw in some mind-boggling decisions — why on Earth did he go up for that layup? — and you have people ready to throw him over the top rope.

I get it, but this is still a very good basketball player whose drives and turnover suppression (at least compared to the Castle/Harper duo last year) still hold value for the Spurs.

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With that said, I do think the Spurs are going to be forced into making some tough decisions next offseason at the absolute latest. Castle and Harper may prove to be so good that we reach the “they kinda have to start” point. Do you really start all three at the expense of Devin Vassell (another one of my faves) and the shooting (and more) that he provides? 

Do you consider bringing Fox off the bench if the guard growth (and lineup data) suggest it? How would Fox take that? 

It’s a subplot worth monitoring.

OTHER CONCERNS

  • I cited Castle’s catch-and-shoot numbers earlier, but there is a volume-plus-efficiency threshold that he, Harper, and Fox need to hit to 1) create more room for everyone and 2) turn down the volume of “unders” they faced last year.

  • Wemby has to continue growing as a half-court creator. It’s a positive that he can be moved around the board and used in different ways. And, again, he’s fresh off averaging 25 a night on high efficiency. But the Finals really shined a light on the fact that there isn’t a pet action or area of the floor that he can consistently generate good shots at. It’s a positive that he’s this good without it, but that feels like the next step. 

  • I’m looking at the 3-through-5 depth on the roster, and my head keeps tilting when I think about Carter Bryant’s pathway to 20+ minutes a night. I like him quite a bit and want real room for him. But there are more options at the 4, Vassell should get plenty of minutes at the 3, and if the Spurs lean into more Fox-Harper-Castle minutes, things do get a bit tight. Of course, Mitch Johnson is an NBA head coach and I am a writer-plus-podcaster; he absolutely has a better handle on this than I would. Keeping eyes on it, though!

LINEUP TO WATCH:Castle-Harper-Vassell-Champagnie-Wemby

Between the regular season and the playoffs, this group played only 94 minutes together. 

They won those minutes by [checks notes] 73 points.

Barring an injury, I don’t think this will be the starting group out of the gate. I do expect we’ll see it, assuming Harper is the first sub in. But if this lineup even approaches winning minutes to this degree over a larger sample, conversations need to be had.

BEST CASE: No. 1 seed

They were only two games behind the Thunder for the top seed last year (while handedly winning the regular-season matchups). Internal growth from their youngsters and reasonable health may be enough for the Spurs to not only snag the top seed, but to flirt with a 70-win season.

WORST CASE: No. 5 seed

Beyond the easy “what if everyone important gets hurt” button that is available for literally every team in the league, there’s a world where opposing defenses become a little more switch-heavy, a little more willing to cross-match against the Spurs to muck things up for their half-court offense. 

The Spurs aren’t barren of shooters, but there are enough guys in the rotation (Fox, Castle, Harper, Johnson, Bryant*) that defenses may be comfortable saying “OK, I’m not terrified of the prospect of these guys firing away.” 

If the (half-court) offense underwhelms and the top of the conference is as strong as I think it is, it’s not inconceivable that the Spurs start a first-round series on the road.

WHAT TO LIKE: Kevin Durant, still going

I’d like to start with a stat: only 6.5% of Durant’s shot attempts came inside of three feet last year, easily a career low. He still averaged 26 points on 64.1 true shooting. 

The year could be 2045, he might weigh 87 pounds by that point, and I trust he’d still be able to sleepwalk into 20 points because of the shooting touch, high release point, and his ability to fire off-platform. 

This is one of the greatest players we’ve ever seen, and it’s cool that he’s still as good and impactful — and willing to log an ungodly amount of minutes! — as he is.

OTHER LIKES

  • Amen Thompson got himself paid, and rightfully so. He took a step back defensively because of his heightened on-ball role, but he remains one of the most electric on- and off-ball defenders in the league. The “point guard” experiment came with mixed results, but he undoubtedly grew as a self-creator. I’m excited to see what he has in store for us this season.

  • Early last season, it felt like Alperen Şengün had ascended to becoming Houston’s best (or at least most impactful) player. He came out the gates firing from 3, he still shrugged and slithered his way into post buckets and free throws, and he looked more comfortable (and competent) within Houston’s defensive system. That didn’t fully sustain, but he still put together a season worthy of All-Star and All-NBA consideration. I remain high on him.

  • Related to all of that: welcome back, Fred VanVleet! Whew, boy, were there several points last season where I thought “this team needs someone to set the table.” At minimum, VanVleet’s presence should take some of the creation burden off of the Durant/Sengun/Thompson trio, and his shooting ability should make life easier for those three to operate when they do have the ball.

  • Sneaking in a fourth thought, sue me: I really appreciate the competitive fire of Jabari Smith Jr. I had to say his name somewhere.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: (Half-court) Shot Profile 

Health is the easy button, but I do still have some questions about the types of shots they can generate. Per Cleaning the Glass, this is where the Rockets got their shots from last year, both overall and within half-court situations.

  • Overall: 18th in rim rate (30% of their shot attempts), 2nd in mid-range rate (37.7%), 26th in 3-point rate (32.3%)

  • Half-court: 25th in rim rate (23.2%), 2nd in mid-range rate (43.2%), 25th in 3-point rate (33.5%)

That’s just a tough diet to live on if you don’t have multiple players performing above expectation. 

VanVleet’s presence will help the quality of shots; his comfort in ball screens and his willingness to take 3s off the bounce should shift things some. Even with that, I don’t know if he materially changes how jumper-reliant this team is slated to be. 

That scares me a little bit in terms of their playoff projection.

OTHER CONCERNS

  • Speaking of 3-point shooting, I’m curious to see how much rope Ime Udoka gives Reed Sheppard this year. The return of VanVleet and the addition/reunion of Marcus Smart could be all the reason Udoka needs to cut Sheppard’s minutes, especially if his defense and decision-making aren’t at a certain level.

  • It was a really uneven season for Tari Eason as he worked through hip and lower body injuries. Many will point to the ghastly 3-point slump he had in March — though he still wound up shooting better from 3 last year (35.8%) than the year before (34.2%) — but he lacked his usual juice as a driver and finisher. I think he’ll ultimately bounce back, but the Rockets do need him.

  • Less of a concern, more of a curiosity: as much as I like him, I still cannot figure out just how good of a 3-point shooter Smith is. I am waiting for the 38%-on-high-volume year from him. I hope, for everyone’s sake, that we get it.

LINEUP TO WATCH: VanVleet-Thompson-Eason-Smith-Durant

Per Cleaning the Glass, we got 651 possessions of center-less (no Sengun, Steven Adams, or Clint Capela) basketball from the Rockets during the regular season. They were a slight negative in those minutes (-1.3 net rating), which is a little better than I expected considering the availability issues of Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith.

The Rockets were outscored with Thompson/Eason/Smith/Durant on the floor without a center last year (190 possessions, -7.3 net rating), but I am generally curious of what that looks like with VanVleet in the fold, plus a better/healthier Eason.

BEST CASE: No. 3 seed

The Rockets have been an elite defense in every year of Udoka’s tenure. For all my (valid!) concerns about the half-court offense, they were still a top-10 unit overall due to their transition attack. They were also unfathomably good on the offensive glass, and I would expect that to continue.

If the defense remains elite and VanVleet’s presence is enough to take them from 19th in half-court offense to, say, 12th? They’ll be looking at 50+ wins again.

WORST CASE: Play-In Tournament

If the half-court offense is still a problem — if opponents are even more empowered to be physical off-ball, switch a bunch, and shrink the floor off nonshooters — then the ceiling lowers. They’ll still have the defensive infrastructure to churn out wins, but they may not do so at the level of some of their conference-mates.

WHAT TO LIKE: Herb Jones, as a concept

All Herb Jones does, when healthy, is defend his tail off, clean up messes, maintain advantages as a driver and connective passer, and ultimately make your team better. 

He’s been one of my favorite wings since his rookie season, and I really hope we get a healthier version of him than what we’ve gotten over the past two seasons.

That guy’s a winning player. 

OTHER LIKES

  • Are people aware that Trey Murphy III is coming off back-to-back 20-point seasons? The increase in on-ball responsibility hasn’t come without its warts — still keeping an eye on the handle and his processing speed, among other things — but he’s a fun watch when he has it rolling.

  • To close the door on injury-related shouts: We are coming off one of the healthiest campaigns of Zion Williamson’s career (62 games), and Dejounte Murray was kiiinda nuts (complimentary; 17-5-6 on 58 true shooting) when he made his return. 

  • Give me a big who can pass, and I’m likely going to be in. Friend of the program Derik Queen fits the bill, with his blend of driving chops and passing vision leading to an All-Rookie Second Team selection and a lot of highlights last year. 

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Zion Williamson + Derik Queen

I think you can (still) talk yourself into Zion, an All-NBA caliber talent when he’s upright. I think you can talk yourself into Queen, boasting plenty of upside as a walking mismatch offensively.

It’s a really hard sell, at least for me, to believe in these two as a tandem moving forward. The defense is just too rough, with neither being a strong rim protector or comfortable enough on the perimeter to provide positive value there. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Pelicans had a near-123 defensive rating (that’s really bad!) when they shared the floor. It got to a point where DeAndre Jordan was sharing the floor with those two so they could have some semblance of a defensive center available.

DeAndre Jordan in 2026!

(As a brief aside, an earnest shoutout to Jordan for being one of the best veterans in the league. By all accounts, he’s a tremendous guy to have around and there’s a reason the Pelicans wanted him back. There was certainly probably a more cap-savvy way to accomplish that feat, but the overall desire to bring him back made sense.)

Are they really about to enter this year trying to make Zion-at-the-3 work, with Queen and Yves Missi (I’m a fan) up front? Do you bring Queen off the bench by default? If so, what does that do for his growth? 

OTHER CONCERNS

  • I am fascinated by what Jamahl Mosley is going to do with this group. His defensive pedigree is strong; his offensive creativity … not so much, at least based on the Orlando sample. If he’s able to lay the foundation of a competent defense with some of the players expected to be in this rotation, he’ll deserve Coach of the Year nods and a raise.

  • Similar to Queen, I do wonder what kind of runway Jeremiah Fears will have. I think the minutes will be there — whether he starts ahead of Murray, starts with him, or is simply a high-minute reserve until trades happen — but I’m fascinated by how much (or little) freedom Mosley will give him.

  • Seriously, how quickly can the consolidation trades come in for this team? Do we need Jordan Poole on this particular roster? 

LINEUP TO WATCH: Murray-Murphy III-Jones-Sadiq Bey-Williamson

In what was generally a rough season for the Pelicans, I present you with this: per Cleaning the Glass, this group had a +10.9 net rating in 230 possessions together behind an insanely efficient offense (126.1 offensive rating).

I don’t know how sustainable that is, and this asks a lot of Jones specifically on the defensive end, but I do want to see this group with a larger sample. In theory, it’s a fun mix of (self) creation and spacing.

BEST CASE: Just outside the Play-In, Queen + Fears make notable improvements

There is talent here, though not enough for me to comfortably say “this could be a top-10 team if things break right.” There’s a potential wave element to the lineups Mosley could put together to ensure they have multiple bucket-getters on the floor at all times. If the defense gets to “serviceable,” at minimum they profile as a team that’ll be incredibly annoying to deal with.

More importantly, you want to see growth from Queen and Fears. Steps defensively from both; continued nuance in ball screens (especially the pacing) from Fears; maybe some shooting growth from Queen. 

WORST CASE: Bottom of the West, roster crunch affects Queen + Fears development

There are so many things happening on this roster that I am just now getting to mention the fact that Saddiq Bey played so well that he earned a multi-year extension, and that they added Bennedict Mathurin.

In all seriousness, it’s not difficult to envision a world where it takes Mosley some time to map out a reasonable rotation pattern and the roles within these lineups. If he leans on playing the vets in an effort to establish whatever he feels his vision is, the downstream effect could be seeing less Fears and Queen than expected — especially when you factor in where they are defensively.

WHAT TO LIKE: Cooper Flagg

It was a year of trial by fire for Cooper Flagg, as he was both moved around the board and increasingly handed the keys as the year went on. The month-by-month — heck, the game-by-game — growth was a joy to witness. The drives became more forceful. The foul-drawing became more frequent. The playmaking chops perked up as teams sent more attention his way. And he displayed this growth, culminating in a Rookie of the Year nod (I probably still would’ve gone Kon Knueppel if I had a vote, but Flagg was a more-than-fair choice), within a context that wasn’t kind to him.

I can’t wait to see what he does this year. 

OTHER LIKES

  • The return of Kyrie Irving should certainly make life easier for Flagg, and for the Mavericks’ offense as a whole. He’s one of the most dynamic scorers we’ve ever seen, a high-level shooter, and a quality-enough playmaker that should (further) unlock Flagg as a screener. 

  • I think this can be a very good defensive team. A quick reminder that, before the turn of the calendar, the Mavericks were 11th in defensive rating. There’s a level of range and switchability up and down the roster that I like. I really, really hope Dereck Lively II can get back to good health and add to this group.

  • On a related note, consider me an early fan of Morez Johnson. His motor runs incredibly hot, he flies around defensively, and I was impressed by the interior scoring during his brief Summer League stint.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: How well can they deal with switches?

As much as I love skilled size, having a bunch of like-sized guys does invite on- and off-ball switching from defenses. The Mavericks faced switches at one of the highest rates in the league, and their efficiency against those looks were … let’s just say #LessThanIdeal. 

If Irving, Flagg, P.J. Washington and others are able to punish switches enough, the offense should be able to complement what I believe will be a good defense. All of a sudden, the Mavericks are in the play-in picture in a way you didn’t expect.

If teams are comfortable flattening them out and their shot quality (and profile) suffers, things are going to feel clunky. 

OTHER CONCERNS

  • The guard creation behind Irving leaves a bit to be desired. I don’t know how much we’ll see Sergio de Larrea, a guy I enjoyed in Summer League, but I have questions about his ability to win as a driver (at least early on). I don’t know how much of Marcus Sasser we’ll see. Those two being the first names after Irving is, say it with me, #LessThanIdeal.

  • As I said on the Dunker Spot, I am both happy for Zaccharie Risacher being in a different context with lowered expectations, but also worried about how well he’ll perform in this context in light of the teams-will-switch-a-bunch-against-the-Mavs questions I have.

  • Dereck Lively II as a concept. Please, please, please get healthy. 

LINEUP TO WATCH: Irving-Christie-Flagg-Washington-Johnson

It’s a smaller group that doesn’t really feel small. There’s some real juice between the Flagg-Washington-Johnson triumvirate on both ends. Irving would have multiple ball-screen partners to choose from, in addition to being a problem in his own right. And I like Max Christie here as a guy that can space and (sneakily) sprinkle in some creation against tilted defenses.

BEST CASE: Play-In Tournament

I’m generally a believer in the defense. Flagg should get better and could push for All-Star consideration this year. Get enough games out of Irving (and Lively), win enough against switch-heavy gameplans, and it’s not hard to map out a pathway to the play-in picture.

WORST CASE: Bottom of the West

This would be some combination of the offense being flattened out, the (transition) defense being dinged in light of the shaky offense, and health concerns with Irving and Lively. I could obviously be wrong when actual games are played, but it feels like any sort of extended absence from Irving specifically would wreck this team.

WHAT TO LIKE: Offensive versatility

I’m pretty bullish on the amount of levers this team can pull. Memphis was pretty high on my “I like the stuff they run” list, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the playbook opens up a little more with this group. 

Ty Jerome is electric in pick-and-roll — a kind reminder that he averaged 20 & 6 in under 23 minutes on 52/42/88 splits during his shortened season — and should vibe incredibly well with rookie sensation Cameron Boozer, who could and should be used in a myriad of ways. Zach Edey’s mix of slow (and low) rolls, post-mashing and offensive rebounding prowess should be fun. 

Cedric Coward looked a little more comfortable with the ball in his hands during Summer League, and the off-ball feel and spacing should be there. Jerami Grant remains a bucket-getter. 

I think people are going to be surprised.

OTHER LIKES

  • Cam Spencer is one of the most underrated guards in the league, and I’m excited for more people to get hip to him. A cool mix of poise and audacity in pick-and-roll, with the latter portion being informed by his ability to shoot the absolute cover off the basketball.

  • I feel contractually obligated to root for any NBA player with drumming in their skill-set; GG Jackson is no different. In all seriousness, I’m forever intrigued by his blend of size and skill. He also was asked to defend a little bit of everyone last year. It didn’t always go well, especially against smaller guards, but I kinda like that he was challenged in that way. 

  • Is this quietly one of the better center rooms in the league? Edey’s a monster that grew in important ways before he went down. I’m a fan of the Quinten Post contract, especially since he seemed to grow defensively to complement his shooting on the other end. Isaiah Stewart is one of the best interior defenders in the league, period, who also doesn’t mind hitting people setting bone-crushing screens.

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Who draws two?

There are a lot of players I like on this roster, but it’s fair to say there may not be anyone here who actually strikes fear in the heart of opponents. That could work to their advantage early in the season, but if the bit becomes a mix of “we’ll just play drop and stay out of rotation” and “we’ll just switch, especially in the non-Edey minutes,” they could be a lot less fun than I’m currently envisioning.

(Of course, if Boozer is as good as I think he is and will be, he may take the switching off the table immediately.)

OTHER CONCERNS

  • More curiosity than concern, but I do wonder how often the Grizzlies will look to play small and how viable those lineups will be. I still have memories of Omax Prosper logging real minutes at the 5!

  • I mentioned Jerome and Spencer earlier, but in general I find myself in the “they have guys that can shoot, but how many guys do they have that defenses think can shoot?” vortex. 

  • Also more curiosity than concern, but the Grizzlies do have more cuts to make before the season begins. They’ve already gotten D’Angelo Russell out of there. 

LINEUP TO WATCH: Jerome-Spencer-Coward-Grant-Boozer

I almost went with the five I mentioned in the “likes” section, but this is probably the “small” ball unit I’m most excited to see. The combined playmaking and shooting of Jerome and Spencer, the off-ball juice of Coward, the bucket-getting of Grant, and Boozer getting to operate with maximum space around him and screeners for him when they inevitably invert the offense. 

BEST CASE: Play-In Tournament

I’m a couple of weeks away from “having” to finalize my preseason predictions, but I am very close to flat-out having the Grizzlies as a play-in team. I believe in the offensive versatility and the overall depth. They just have to stay healthy and hit enough of the right notes defensively — this is where the Edey steps from last year feel important to me — to have a high-enough baseline.

WORST CASE: Bottom of the West

This could be as simple as the top-end talent not being good enough compared to the rest of the playoff contenders in the West, them missing Jaren Jackson Jr. a lot defensively, and teams playing conservative coverages and the Grizzlies not dinging them enough for it to matter.

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