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The New York Knicks’ 16-3 run to the NBA Championship was impressive.
Just not impressive enough to sway the NBA Championship odds at prediction markets like Kalshi to believe anyone other than the San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder can win the 2027 title.
Those two Western Conference powers have a combined 55% shot to claim the NBA title next season (Thunder 28%, Spurs 27%), which means solid returns for the other 28 teams.
The entire NBA offseason is in front of us, with trades, free agency, and the NBA Draft on deck. Before the summer circus starts, here are my three favorite NBA picks to make right now.
🏆2026-27 NBA Championship predictions
| Team |  |
Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Miami Heat |
3% | +3233 |
 Indiana Pacers |
4% | +2400 |
 Houston Rockets |
3% | +3233 |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi as of 3:15 p.m. ET on 6-15.
📈2026-27 NBA Championship odds
Miami Heat (3¢ at Kalshi)
The Heat are at the center of the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors, with the Bucks star preferring to land in South Beach. An investment now gets you out ahead of the market moves.
Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jacquez Jr., and draft picks are the reported return for the Bucks, but recent rumblings say they’re asking for more. That could draw a third team into the mix to help satisfy Milwaukee’s needs.
Adding Giannis alongside Bam Adebayo gives Miami the most potent frontcourt tandem in the NBA. The Heat will likely retain Andrew Wiggins and have promising young guards in Davion Mitchell and Pelle Larsson, along with mastermind coach Erik Spoelstra.
A trade for Antetokounmpo could also entice free agents to sign with Miami — if the sun, fun, and no income tax weren’t enough.
As the Knicks showed, the path through the East is far easier, and the Miami Heat odds will spike if and when the Giannis deal gets done.
Indiana Pacers (4¢ at Kalshi)
It would only be fitting that the Indiana Pacers take their place as the Knicks’ biggest rivals in the Eastern Conference.
Let’s not forget, Indiana was a Tyrese Halliburton Achilles tear away from knocking off OKC in the 2025 NBA Finals. The Pacers didn’t rush their star back in 2026, playing out what was a throw-away season.
Indiana swapped the would-be No. 5 pick for center Ivica Zubac, who gives the Pacers the interior toughness needed to compete against the likes of San Antonio and OKC.
The rest of the roster is pretty much intact, returning the depth that was the Pacers’ calling card in 2025. A free agent signing at forward (like veteran Khris Middleton) would bolster the frontcourt and have the Pacers back in the title hunt in 2026.
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Houston Rockets (3¢ at Kalshi)
The Houston Rockets’ early playoff exit and combined 4-10 record against the West’s Top 4 teams have soured most, plunging Houston to seventh in the projected conference pecking order.
This slide seems severe considering the Rockets finished sixth in net rating last year, behind five of the Top 6 favorites to win the 2027 NBA title.
This roster is sound and should return veteran pieces that were injured last year. Kevin Durant is still an All-NBA talent and has quality players around him, with Tari Eason (RFA), Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, and Reed Shepard all stepping up.
Houston also has a lot of future draft capital to flex, should it want to chase a big-name trade between now and the 2027 deadline. If the Rockets hold their own among the best in the West come February, GM Rafael Stone might make a move to bring in a second superstar.
I see a lot of wiggle room in the Western Conference, at least below the Spurs and Thunder. The Lakers may not have LeBron James back, Denver’s window is closing, the L.A. Clippers are caught in the Kawhi drama, and Minnesota could look very different — good or bad.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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