Semifinals preview: Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun

The Connecticut Sun will meet the Minnesota Lynx in the 2024 WNBA Semifinals, beginning this Sunday, Sept. 29 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). The best-of-five series features the No. 3-seed Sun (28-12 during the 2024 regular season) and the No. 2-seed Lynx (30-10), both of whom swept their respective opponents in the first round of the playoffs.

The Sun previously faced the Lynx in the first round of the 2023 WNBA Playoffs, a series that Connecticut won two games to one. The Sun were largely expected to win that series at the time, and it’s not surprising to see them back in the semifinals in 2024; the Lynx, meanwhile, have improved significantly from their 19-win campaign in 2023, and it sets up an intriguing rematch in this year’s postseason.

Roster additions have improved both the Sun and the Lynx

On Connecticut’s end, not much has changed identity-wise. The Sun remain one of the WNBA’s most physical and hard-working teams, a veteran squad built around the talents of forwards Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner. The pair has now led the Sun to five-consecutive semifinal appearances, spearheading a winning culture that Connecticut faithful hope will soon include the franchise’s first-ever WNBA championship.

WNBA: SEP 17 Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun — No WNBA player embodies physical play quite like the Sun’s Alyssa Thomas.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is playing its best basketball since the days of Maya Moore and Sylvia Fowles. The Lynx dynasty of the mid-2010s is long gone, but they have a new star in Napheesa Collier—a versatile, efficient forward who has ascended from star rookie and defensive playmaker to bona fide MVP candidate.

The Lynx improved greatly last offseason, adding starting-caliber players such as Courtney Williams and Alanna Smith in free agency, and crafted an offensive philosophy predicated on ball movement and 3-point shooting. Minnesota set a WNBA record for assist rate in the 2024 season, assisting on 76.43 percent of its made baskets (Across the Timeline), and also led the league in 3-point shooting percentage at 38 percent.

WNBA: SEP 17 Playoffs First Round Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun — Kayla McBride is just one of many outstanding 3-point shooters on Minnesota’s roster.

Will the Lynx’s new-look offense be enough to get them over the hump against Connecticut? The Sun, too, improved their scoring with a midseason trade for guard Marina Mabrey, whose outside shooting complements the team’s usual excellence in the paint from Thomas and center Brionna Jones. Past Sun teams may have lacked a secondary perimeter scoring threat, but in Mabrey, Connecticut now has a guard who can go toe-to-toe with Minnesota’s Kayla McBride.

Which team will lock in more on defense?

While Connecticut and Minnesota have vastly different approaches on offense—the Sun’s strengths lie on the glass and at the free throw line, while the Lynx excel on the perimeter—they’re both terrific on the defensive side of the ball. The Sun and Lynx ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in defensive rating during the regular season, with not even a point per 100 possessions separating them, and both teams ranked in the top four in opponent turnover percentage.

So, despite the amount of offensive talent that will be on display in the series, don’t be surprised if the games are relatively low-scoring. Only one of the three regular-season meetings between the Sun and Lynx exceeded 160 points, and they needed overtime to get there.

Regardless, the results of those regular-season games suggest the semifinals will be a tightly-contested series. Though Connecticut beat Minnesota two games to one in the regular season, it wasn’t by much: Those three games were decided by a total of four points, with each one remaining undecided until the final minutes. Expect several more highly-competitive games as the Sun and Lynx battle for a spot in the WNBA Finals.