Following another domineering five-point win by Ireland who put struggling Wales away eventually, the list of potential outcomes still open to Scotland in this tournament shrinks yet further.
Despite what Andy Farrell will say about Ireland being the best version of themselves and only focusing one game ahead, it is convenient that they can now also plan to tie up the tournament in Round 4 with a bonus point win over England.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t questions about what comes next in the final rounds, especially for Gregor Townsend and Scotland.
Would we have won that game without Duhan?
Yes, but it wouldn’t have been as fun to watch, and we might have had to work a little harder for the tries. In terms of influence on the outcome, you also have to look at Finn Russell and Huw Jones who were both superb and were vital cogs in all three of the big winger’s tries. Watch Jones and White clear out the tacklers in support of Redpath’s break – Finn doesn’t get the quick pass from Ritchie for the cross-kick without them. It was great to hear the news too this week that Huw will be staying at Scotstoun for the foreseeable future.
The pack put in a much improved performance too with both Grant Gilcrhist and Scott Cummings to the fore at lineout time.
Will Duhan break the Scotland try-scoring record in the final two rounds?
If he starts against Italy, it could be the sort of game that will suit him, where Scotland look to counter-attack quickly from errors. Italy have improved a lot, but can still put under pressure. However, his chances for tries will be a lot fewer against Ireland who have proven well able to take him out of the game in recent encounters.
It seems certain that he will overtake Hogg before the year’s end, even picking up the odd yellow card.
Can Finn finish the tournament as top points scorer?
It is currently between him and George Ford – who is going to find conversions harder to come by in the next two weeks but does love a drop goal – and Ireland’s Jack Crowley, but if Finn can nab a try instead of being so generous with his distribution he’s got a good chance of being the first Scottish player to pick up that award.
Just how bad are England?
It did look ominous after their opening try; Scotland were cut open easily. After that, of course, Scotland did all the cutting. For England’s new defence coach Felix Jones it probably felt like death by a thousand cuts.
But his system – that the Springboks used against us to great effect in the World Cup – will take more than 3 games to bed in assuming they stick with it. The concern for England is that they cannot focus on building an identity and also and keep picking players at the tail end of their careers in order to eke out a win or two.
They have talent but why are they so unable to mesh it together? Luckily, that’s Steve Borthwick’s problem not ours.
Scotland were good but not close to great and it was enough to beat England.
What can Scotland do better?
Bring Blair Kinghorn in to the attacking line more and, as usual, get more carrying from the pack.
Everyone was so focused on the errors England made and the tries that resulted, it glossed over just how many knock-ons and turnovers Scotland gave away in the first half; Kinghorn’s best role is not fielding high balls, which is probably why England kicked it to him so much. Let him run!
Overall Scotland need to work more into scoring positions from phase play – Ireland will not be so generous with spilled balls in convenient attacking positions for Duhan.
The worry is Italy will be generous in the meantime, and give us false hope that we’re going to rock up in Dublin and get a Triple Crown without realising we are still undercooked.
Can Scotland cope without Sione Tuipulotu?
There are two weeks for him to recover but the word from Glasgow assistant coach Nigel Carolan during the week wasn’t great: this injury could keep him out for the next three weeks. Even so, it seems likely Cam Redpath or Stafford McDowall could be lined up to start against Italy to give Sione the potential for an extra week’s recovery, and also to allow his replacement to bed in ahead of Ireland if he is done for, in terms of the 2024 Six Nations. His power in midfield will be missed.
Scotland can cope without his power against Italy, but Ireland will be a bigger challenge where he would have been vital. The hope is that he has become such a fixture in midfield there is little video footage of anyone else for opponents to do research with.
Will there be changes for Rome?
As mentioned above, Cam Redpath is most likely to come in and hopefully this is the game where Andy Christie gets a start. Redpath is not a like for like swap for Sione but does have familiarity with Finn. If Townsend wants a powerful ball-carrier to replicate the Huwipulotu dynamic more closely, McDowall might be worth a look. No, we’re not playing Duhan at 13. What are we, Wales?
Ewan Ashman is more of a like-for-like swap with George Turner, with the young hooker much improved in the Calcutta Cup.
There is no need to go for the wholesale changes of the past but those three might realistically have started this game anyway and would be worth a shot.
Can we get out of a dogfight in Rome and finally score a try Bonus Point?
As usual Italy will probably target us for a win in front of a sell-out home crowd – and they got closer than Scotland did to France. It won’t be easy (it never is) but really if Scotland don’t come out with a comfortable win in Rome then they should be happy enough to settle for mid table again and the usual jibes in the Irish press.
And here’s one final question for you:
If Scotland win the Triple Crown for the first time since 1990 but still finish 3rd or so would it be considered a successful tournament?
We’d take some silverware, even our first Triple Crown without a Grand Slam since 1938. But a finish of third or even fourth would represent a considerable downturn in fortunes despite an uptick in performances.
If this is the peak era of this Scotland team, we’d really rather measure things in results…
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