Big Ten Tournament preview: OSU, Iowa or Indiana?

It’s a three-team competition for the Big Ten Tournament championship. Will Ohio State, Iowa or Indiana take home the trophy in front of a sold-out crowd in Minneapolis?

A sell-out crowd will stuff the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN for the 2024 Big Ten Tournament. The tourney tips off Wednesday, Mar. 6 and continues through Sunday, Mar. 10, when the winner will raise the trophy.

Big Ten regular season champion Ohio State earned the No. 1-seed, followed by defending tournament champion and No. 2-seed Iowa, No. 3-seed Indiana and No. 4-seed Michigan State. Those teams earned a double-bye to the quarterfinals.

The top three teams—Ohio State, Iowa and Indiana—are the clear favorites. It’d be a surprise if another team triumphed; however, a number of squads can use the tournament to improve their NCAA Tournament standing. ESPN’s latest Bracketology projection has Michigan State as a No. 7 seed, Nebraska as a No. 9 seed, Michigan as a No. 10 seed and Maryland as a No. 11 seed. Penn State is among the first four left out of the 68-team field.

The first round will be available on Peacock, while the second round, quarterfinals and semifinals will be broadcast on Big Ten Network. Sunday’s championship will be shown on CBS.

But, let’s get down to business. Will the Buckeyes, Hawkeyes or Hoosiers take home the trophy?

The case for Ohio State

Until Sunday’s loss at Iowa, Ohio State was smoking hot, winners of 15 games in a row. Can the Buckeyes reclaim that momentum? By earning the No. 1 seed, Ohio State has an easier path to the title, as they only will meet one of Iowa or Indiana in the championship game. Along the way, they’ll likely have to beat Maryland and Michigan State for a third time this season, never an easy task. Those tests, however, should ensure the Ohio State defense is operating optimally for the title game. Using their defense, particularly their press, to control the pace of the game will be critical if the Buckeyes meet the Hawkeyes in the final. Ohio State also must make sure to offensively engage Cotie McMahon throughout their tourney run; the Buckeyes are the best versions of themselves when the sophomore forward looks like the star she is.

The case for Iowa

Caitlin Clark. Yes, as our Zachary Draves judiciously has documented, Iowa’s success is about more than Clark; the Hawkeyes are at their best when the ball is popping and the scoring load is shared. Nevertheless, it still all comes down to Clark. If her deep 3s are falling, expect the Target Center to electrify, sparking a current of energy that can fuel the high-scoring Hawkeye attack. However, the likely absence of Molly Davis could prove pivotal. Without Davis’ secondary ball handling, more pressure will be on Clark to create scoring opportunities for herself and others. Davis’ absence could allow Ohio State, Indiana or other opponents to more aggressively pressure Clark in the back court, inducing her to give up the ball to less steady hands. Of course, Clark quickly can dissect doubles or traps and destroy such a strategy, finding teammates for easy, open runways to the basket.

The case for Indiana

In the anticipation for a third game between Ohio State and Iowa, Indiana should be not overlooked, especially since the Hoosiers, more than any team, shut down Clark in their upset over the Hawkeyes in February. But, Indiana’s title viability might be on shaky ground, as Mackenzie Holmes exited Sunday’s win over Maryland with an apparent knee injury. Without Holmes’ hyper-efficient post play, it’s hard to imagine the Hoosiers mustering an edge in a potential semifinals matchup with the Hawkeyes. Furthermore, Indiana has received little production from their bench throughout the season. If Holmes is absent or limited, the Hoosiers will need some hot shooting from the likes of Sara Scalia and Sydney Parrish, along with an unexpectedly loud game or two from often too-quiet reserves.

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Big Ten Tournament schedule

All games will be played at the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN.

First round — Wednesday, Mar. 6

Game 1: No. 12 Purdue vs. No. 13 Northwestern, 6:30 p.m. ET (Peacock)

Game 2: No. 11 Minnesota vs. No. Rutgers, 25 min. following Game 1 (Peacock)

Second round — Thursday, Mar. 7

Game 3: No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Illinois, 12:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)

Game 4: No. 5 Nebraska vs. winner of Game 1, 25 min. following Game 3 (Big Ten Network)

Game 5: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Wisconsin, 6:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)

Game 6: No. 6 Michigan vs. winner of Game 2, 25 min. following Game 5 (Big Ten Network)

Quarterfinals — Friday, Mar. 8

Game 7: No. 1 South Carolina vs. winner of Game 3, 12:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)

Game 8: No. 4 Michigan State vs. winner of Game 4, 25 min. following Game 7 (Big Ten Network)

Game 9: No. 2 Iowa vs. winner of Game 5, 6:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)

Game 10: No. Indiana vs. winner of Game 6, 25 min. following Game 9 (Big Ten Network)

Semifinals — Saturday, Mar. 9

Game 11: winner of Game 7 vs. winner of Game 8, 2 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)

Game 12: winner of Game 9 vs. winner of Game 10, 25 min. following Game 11 (Big Ten Network)

Championship — Sunday, Mar. 10

Game 13: winner of Game 11 vs. winner of Game 12, 12 p.m. ET (CBS)