NBA front offices are expected to become increasingly cautious about trading future first-round picks as the league moves closer to implementing a major lottery reform.
Many teams are choosing to hold onto draft assets until they fully understand how the revised system could impact roster-building and long-term planning.
The NBA’s proposed “3-2-1” lottery structure is set for a Board of Governors vote on May 28 and is widely expected to pass.
Under the proposal, teams finishing fourth through tenth would each receive an equal 8.1% chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick.
The lottery pool would also expand to include 16 teams, bringing more than half the league into the drawing.
Because more franchises would have realistic opportunities to secure elite draft talent, future first-round picks are becoming more valuable.
Teams that once moved picks aggressively in blockbuster trades may now become far more conservative with those assets.
The updated system could also reduce the incentive for extreme tanking, since teams that narrowly miss the playoffs would still have meaningful lottery chances without needing to finish near the bottom of the standings.
Although the Stepien rule already limits how many future picks teams can trade, organizations may now place even stricter internal limits on themselves to avoid losing potentially valuable lottery selections in future deals.
NBA’s New Lottery Reform Expected To Make Teams More Reluctant To Trade Future Firsts https://t.co/eLUsF5YbIk
— RealGM (@RealGM) May 13, 2026
