One could argue that Sunday marks one of the biggest days the Jazz have seen in a long time, easily the biggest since the Jazz were in a very similar situation a year ago. While the 2026 NBA Draft has recently lost a lot of its depth, it remains incredibly strong at the top, and anyone lucky enough to select in the top four will be adding a potential franchise-changing talent. Last season the Jazz had the worst record in the association and held a 52.1% chance at a top four pick and a 14% chance at the number one pick. As we all know, the worst-case scenario came as the Jazz fell to the fifth pick before selecting Ace Bailey. This season the Jazz finished tied for the fourth-worst record with the Sacramento Kings, requiring a coin flip to decide who gets the tiebreaker. Luckily the Jazz won that coin flip, but what does that mean for the odds at each pick?
The Jazz have a 45.2% chance at a top four pick and an 11.5% chance at the number one pick, but it goes a little deeper than that. The worst-case scenario last year was falling to five. This year the worst-case scenario would be falling to eight, but that is very unlikely. Compared to last year, there was about a 48% chance we’d be selecting fifth. The odds for each pick are listed below.
- First-11.5%
- Second-11.4%
- Third-11.2%
- Fourth-11%
- Fifth-7.5%
- Sixth-27.1%
- Seventh-17.9%
- Eighth-2.4%
How do those odds make you feel? Hopeful? Nervous? Scared? Excited? The Jazz have NEVER moved up in the lottery, but there’s always a first time for everything. While the sixth and seventh positions are the two highest probabilities by quite a large margin, there’s still a 55% chance we won’t be picking seventh or eighth! So here’s to hoping Sunday is an amazing day for the Jazz and their future.
Everyone wear your lucky shirt on Sunday, and if that’s the same shirt you wore last year… get a new lucky shirt. If you have any superstitions, listen to them. Do anything you can to give the Jazz that edge on Sunday! The NBA Draft Lottery is this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. Mountain Time on ABC.
