Four days ago, football.london analysed just what the Premier League title picture could look like come the end of this week. With Arsenal playing ahead of Liverpool and buoyed by the draw with Aston Villa last Wednesday, the door was open.
Albeit the gap was still eight points, Arsenal knew that they had the chance to pile on pressure with 12 games to go. Had they won against West Ham on Saturday then Liverpool would have kicked off at Manchester City – a ground that has not treated them well domestically for over a decade – with a five-point advantage.
As it happens, Arsenal’s slip-up – losing to Graham Potter at the Emirates Stadium again and at home to the Hammers for the second season running – put Liverpool in cruise control. They played with the assurance and confidence of champions on Sunday evening and walked to a 2-0 victory. The gap is 11, now, with Arsenal’s game in hand not offering much hope any more.
From dreaming to desperation, the race may now be run. Jarrod Bowen’s header in the first half was enough to down Arsenal, who failed to create a spark or a chance. Mikel Merino was tried up front after his heroics but looked every part like a midfielder out of position rather than the super sub from a week earlier at Leicester City.
With no Bukayo Sako or Kai Havertz, and their attacking teammates varying in degrees of being out-of-form, it is hard to see a way back. Liverpool have dropped 17 points all season up to now and would need to almost replicate that across just 11 matches to give Arsenal much of a sniff.
This doesn’t take into account Arsenal’s own form. Although Mikel Arteta did have his side 15 unbeaten in the league, their FA Cup and Carabao Cup fortunes have added to a sense of struggle. The club are second but don’t feel like it.
That feeling could get much worse, too. Arsenal’s maximum points tally from here on in is 89. Liverpool can match that with two games to spare.
Arsenal don’t look like a team about to win 12 straight to close out the campaign, though. They still have to go to Nottingham Forest, this Wednesday, who are looking to respond to their 4-3 defeat at Newcastle United and will be boosted knowing that they could be just three behind Arsenal at the end of that game.
There is also a trip to Old Trafford – easier in reality than on paper but still tough – as well as fixtures against Brentford, who love to spoil things for Arsenal, as well as the visit of Bournemouth and Newcastle. That 89 points looks fanciful but if Arsenal were to go on a winning run it still might not be enough.
Liverpool could, in theory, claim the title on May 10 and at Anfield, a day which sees them welcome Arsenal. This would be a horrible situation for the Gunners given their efforts to push for the league crown. What is possibly worse is that if it doesn’t get that far then they will have to give Arne Slot and his men a guard of honour on that day instead.
Arsenal have made it part of their history to be made champions at the home of their rivals in the past. Having it done to them would be a brutal twist in the tale to have that reversed here.
Either way, it is out of Arsenal’s control. They can only try to keep Liverpool honest from this point onwards.
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