Newcastle vs Arsenal Carabao Cup semi-final second leg simulated to predict must-win game

An extremely tough task awaits Arsenal later today, with the Gunners needing to come from two goals down to beat Newcastle United in their Carabao Cup semi-final second-leg clash.

A disappointing first-leg meeting between Arsenal and Newcastle saw the Magpies win 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium, setting up a real test of Mikel Arteta’s side as they look to pick up their first trophy of the season. Arsenal enter the clash at St. James’ Park in high spirits though, beating Manchester City 5-1 in the Premier League on the weekend.

St. James’ Park has proven to be a difficult trip for Arteta’s side, with Newcastle winning three of the last four meetings on Tyneside. If the Gunners win by two goals in 90 minutes, the game will go to extra-time, while a victory by any larger margin would see them win the tie without the added 30 minutes.

So, could Arsenal overcome the two-goal deficit to reach the Carabao Cup final? Let’s take a look.

We simulated Newcastle vs Arsenal to get a score prediction

To complete this simulation, we used EA FC 25 and updated the squads with the latest injuries and suspensions.

We predict that Newcastle could line up in a 4-3-3 formation, with their starting XI as follows: Dubravka; Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall; Tonali, Guimaraes, Willock; Murphy, Isak, Gordon.

We predict that Arsenal could set up in a 4-3-3 formation, with their line-up as follows: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Partey, Odegaard, Rice; Nwaneri, Havertz, Martinelli.

Like against Man City, Arsenal got off to a dream start against Newcastle, with a mix-up at the back allowing Ethan Nwaneri to square the ball to Martin Odegaard who swept into an empty net from close range. With the lead, the Gunners’ tails were up, and just before the break, Arteta’s side grabbed a second to level the tie on aggregate.

Gabriel Martinelli made it 2-0 to Arsenal
Gabriel Martinelli made it 2-0 to Arsenal
(Image: EA Sports)

A relentless press saw Arsenal dispossess Joe Willock 30 yards from goal, with Odegaard making the challenge before fizzing a pass to Kai Havertz. On the edge of the box, Havertz flicked the ball to Gabriel Martinelli, and the Brazilian fired home with a wonderful first-time finish.

Arsenal were dominant in the opening hour at St. James’ Park, but the hosts started to create a few chances of their own as they looked to get a goal back and settle the clash in 90 minutes. The game looked destined for extra-time, but out of nowhere, Newcastle grabbed the all-important goal in the 93rd minute.

Bruno Guimaraes scored late on to make it 2-1
Bruno Guimaraes scored late on to make it 2-1
(Image: EA Sports)

Lewis Hall’s cross into the box was cleared at the back post, but only as far as Bruno Guimaraes on the edge of the box. The Brazilain chested the ball down before rifling a shot towards goal, and his long-range effort flew into the top corner, handing the Gunners are heartbreak as Arteta’s Carabao Cup journey came to an end.

EA FC 25 predicted final score: Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal (Newcastle win 3-2 on aggregate)

In the other simulation we ran, Spurs lost 4-1 to Liverpool on the night and 4-2 on aggregate, meaning the Reds would take on Newcastle for the Carabao Cup trophy.

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Arsenal Manager Mikel Arteta, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Jesus with the Arsenal Therapy Dog Win during the Arsenal Men's team group shoot at London Colney on September 18, 2023

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